AI labs vs what money buys — valuation, revenue, exchange, and the IPO calendar.
Circle size = valuation (log scale), solid = listed, dashed = target/filed/rumored
Sorted by rebased V:R (on current run-rate). Left ratio = as-reported basis; right ratio rebased to current revenue where known — the apples-to-apples view. Red = >150x, amber = 50–150x, green = <50x. Private valuations shown in italics with 🔒.
| Model | Country | Revenue* | Rev. Quality | Valuation | Exchange | V:R | V:R rebased | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z.ai (Zhipu AI) 🇨🇳 GLM | 🇨🇳 | $100M+132% YoY · FY25 revenue | FY rev RMB 724M 2025; GM 41%; MaaS API run-rate ~$250M (Q1'26) | $56.0Bpublic mkt cap (mid-2026, +600% since IPO) | HKEX 02513listedListed Jan 8, 2026 | 560x (on FY rev) | 224x on current run-rate | First foundation-model company to go public. 1,159x oversubscribed. |
Moonshot AI 🇨🇳 Kimi | 🇨🇳 | $300M+50% in 8 weeks · ARR (Jun 2026) | ARR/run-rate ARR $100M Mar -> $200M May -> $300M Jun; API 70%+ of sales | 🔒 $50.0Bprivate target (pre-IPO round) | HKEX (target)targetTarget early 2027; GS + CICC, $1B+ raise, VIE restructure | 167x (on ARR) | 167x ≈ same as left | K3 (2.8T open-weight) drove valuation surge. |
DeepSeek 🇨🇳 DeepSeek | 🇨🇳 | $500M+140% YoY · annualized (Jul 2026) | ARR/run-rate ~$500M annualized; 70-80% gross margins; 50%+ from model sales | 🔒 $74.0Bprivate target (new round) | STAR Market (target)targetFile end-2026, list 2027 (~Q2); Tencent/CATL/state fund backers | 148x (on run-rate) | 148x ≈ same as left | Pricing ~27x below OpenAI; best margins of the cohort. |
MiniMax 🇨🇳 Hailuo/abab | 🇨🇳 | $79M+159% YoY · FY25 revenue | FY rev $79M 2025 (70%+ intl); ARR $300M+ mid-2026 | $33.0Bpublic mkt cap (post-listing surge) | HKEX 00100listedListed Jan 2026 + STAR A-share filing Jun 2026 · intl >70% intl | 418x (on FY rev) | 110x on current run-rate | Dual-listing path; 1,837x oversubscribed. |
Mistral 🇫🇷 Mistral Large | 🇫🇷 | $400MARR (mid-2026) | ARR/run-rate ~$400M+ ARR, targeting $1B | 🔒 $23.0Bprivate (talks) | Euronext (rumored)rumorParis listing rumored; no filing | 58x (on ARR) | 58x ≈ same as left | |
OpenAI 🇺🇸 GPT | 🇺🇸 | $25.0B~4x YoY · annualized (Q1'26) | ARR/run-rate Q1 2026 revenue $5.7B; ~900M weekly ChatGPT users | 🔒 $852.0Bprivate post-money (Mar 2026); $1T+ IPO talk | Nasdaq (target)filedConfidential S-1 Jun 8, 2026; GS+MS; Q4'26 target leaning 2027 | 34x (on run-rate) | 34x ≈ same as left | $122B raise at $852B. |
Cohere 🇨🇦 Command | 🇨🇦 | $240MARR (2025) | ARR/run-rate ~$240M ARR (beat $200M target) | 🔒 $7.0Bprivate | Nasdaq/TSX (rumored)rumorNo S-1; rumored candidate | 29x (on ARR) | 29x ≈ same as left | |
Anthropic 🇺🇸 Claude | 🇺🇸 | $47.0B4x in 4 months · run-rate (May 2026) | ARR/run-rate $47B run-rate May, ~$60B Jul; first op profit $559M on $10.9B Q2 rev | 🔒 $965.0Bprivate post-money (Series H, May 28 2026) | Nasdaq (target)filedConfidential S-1 Jun 1, 2026; Oct 2026 window | 21x (on run-rate) | 21x ≈ same as left | $65B Series H. |
SenseTime 🇨🇳 SenseNova | 🇨🇳 | $725M+33% YoY · FY25 revenue | FY rev RMB 5.01B 2025; H2 EBITDA turned positive first time since IPO | $7.0Bpublic mkt cap (~$6.7B, Jul 2026) | HKEX 0020listedListed HKEX since Dec 2021 | 9.7x (on FY rev) | 9.7x ≈ same as left | |
iFlytek 🇨🇳 Spark | 🇨🇳 | $4.0B+16% YoY · FY25 revenue | FY rev RMB 27.1B 2025; net profit RMB 839M (+50%) | $16.0Bpublic mkt cap (~$16.2B, Apr 2026) | SZSE 002230listedListed SZSE since 1999 | 4.0x (on FY rev) | 4.0x ≈ same as left | Established public company. |
StepFun 🇨🇳 Step | 🇨🇳 | —not disclosed | N/A Not disclosed | 🔒 $12.0Bprivate (reported) | HKEX (filed)filedFiled HKEX ~Jun 8, 2026; ~$500M raise; Cayman unwind | — | — | Tencent-backed. |
Baichuan 🇨🇳 Baichuan-M3 | 🇨🇳 | —not disclosed | N/A Not disclosed | 🔒 $2.8Bprivate (2024 round) | STAR (weighing)rumorWeighing 2027 STAR listing (loss-maker rules eased) | — | — | Pivoting toward healthcare AI. |
01.AI 🇨🇳 Yi | 🇨🇳 | —not disclosed | N/A Not disclosed | 🔒 $1.0Bprivate (2023 round) | NoneprivateNo IPO plans; Kai-Fu Lee | — | — | |
xAI (SpaceXAI) 🇺🇸 Grok | 🇺🇸 | $500MARR (reported) | ARR/run-rate ~$500M ARR; merged into SpaceX Feb 2026 | 🔒 $1250Bcombined SpaceX+xAI (reported) | Nasdaq (SPCX target)targetTargeting Jun-Jul 2026 IPO at $135/share | —combined entity — n/a | — | xAI was $250B at merger. |
Incumbent context. 'AI/Cloud Rev' mixes model API with cloud hosting — not pure LLM revenue.
| Company | Exchange | AI/Cloud Rev | Basis | Parent mkt cap | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alibaba Qwen | NYSE + HKEX | $1.25B/qtr (AI products, 30% of Cloud) | Q1'26 disclosed | $403B | AI products RMB 9B/qtr; Cloud $4.66B/qtr +40% |
Baidu ERNIE | Nasdaq + HKEX | $4.2B (AI Cloud FY25); AI = 52% of revenue Q1'26 | FY25/Q1'26 disclosed | $38B | Kunlunxin chip unit proposed HKEX spin-off |
Tencent Hunyuan | HKEX | not disclosed separately (RMB 18B invested) | investment only | $553B | AI buried in cloud/ads segments |
ByteDance Doubao | Private | not disclosed (Doubao 75M+ MAU, 155M WAU) | user metrics only | $390B | No IPO timeline confirmed |
Meta Llama | Nasdaq | zero direct (open-source) | n/a | $1,500B | AI powers ads: Q4'25 ad rev +24% |
Google Gemini | Nasdaq | $1.2B (Gemini subs FY25) | FY25 disclosed | $4,400B | Cloud +82% YoY on AI |
Amazon Nova + Claude (Bedrock) | Nasdaq | >$15B (AWS AI run-rate Q1'26) | Q1'26 disclosed | $2,900B | Bedrock 125K customers, 80% of Fortune 100 |
Definitions: ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is annualized subscription run-rate. Run-rate is annualized current revenue. FY revenue is full fiscal year reported. V:R Math: Valuation ÷ Revenue. Private basis uses latest primary round valuation. Public basis uses market capitalization. V:R rebased: valuation ÷ current run-rate (rev_current) where a fresher number exists (e.g. Z.ai MaaS $250M run-rate vs $100M FY25) — bridges trailing-FY and run-rate bases for comparison. Caveat: Private valuations are directional and may not reflect secondary market pricing.